Last October, as news broke that Danielle Hunter would miss the rest of the season, the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Hunter would either demand to become the highest-paid defender in the NFL or force a trade.
That notion brings up a number of problems for the cap-strapped Vikings, who have already begun the process of making difficult moves to clear up enough space while still hoping to compete during the 2021 season.
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It also forces a conversation about how much Hunter, 26, is actually worth. Yes, he’s a talented player whose stats have set records for a player so young. But, quite simply, he is not the best pass rusher in the NFL and he is coming off of an injury with a potentially worrisome prognosis.
Luckily for the Vikings, it might be the case that Hunter will play through the season without any contract drama. General manager Rick Spielman pointed out in his annual offseason news conference that Hunter hasn’t approached the Minnesota front office with any such demands.
That said, it would be good for the Vikings — and their fans — to get a sense for how much Hunter could be worth on the open market or as a trade asset. Moreover, if the Vikings ever want to more fully commit to a clear franchise vision, it would be useful information to have. A full-blown rebuild might require more draft picks, while doubling down on a playoff window could mean extending Hunter as a method of clearing up more cap space.
What could the Vikings find themselves facing heading into a potential negotiation with Hunter? Luckily for this exercise, there have been quite a few high-level edge-rusher deals over the past few years, and there was even a big-name trade that occurred in the not-too-distant past that we can use to gauge his overall value.
Brad Spielberger, Pro Football Focus’ cap expert and a contributor to the salary cap website Overthecap.com, used these deals to estimate that Hunter would be worth about $25 million on an average yearly basis. In the short term, that would mean converting his current deal, which pays out an average of $14.4 million a year, into a new contract that could be heavy on guarantees.
As Spielberger explains, “He’ll still be just 27 years old in 2021 and has seen the edge-rusher market fly by him in recent years. Chargers edge rusher Joey Bosa signed an extension last offseason that pays him $27 million annually, almost double Hunter’s $14.4 million per year average.”
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“If the Vikings and Hunter do come back to the table,” he continued, “Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett’s $25 million per year seems like a good benchmark. Hunter is only a year older than both players and is also among the best pass rushers in the NFL.”
That doesn’t mean Hunter will consume $25 million of space on the 2021 cap. Garrett’s original rookie contract, with the fifth-year option, had him taking up just $15.2 million in cap space for 2021. The new deal dropped that hit to $9.4 million for this upcoming season and $12.9 million for 2022.
There is a concern with simply acquiescing to Hunter’s demands. As Spielberger argues, “Minnesota won’t love establishing a precedent wherein a player can look to re-up with that much time remaining, (even though) Hunter’s deal is arguably the most team-friendly contract in the entire NFL.”
That disparity between his current pay and the pay of his contemporaries could drive both parties to that negotiation nevertheless. The Vikings aren’t blind to the benefits of taking care of their players in scenarios with no immediate player leverage. Their decision to pay out Riley Reiff’s $1 million playing-time bonus despite not meeting the standards due to COVID-19 protocols is one example.
With the expectation that Hunter will take up over $17 million in the cap, the Vikings could approach him with an extension that continues to guarantee a good amount of salary, which should be important for a player who just went through an injury that robbed him of a season. One could add three years to his contract that averages $25 million in new money, making for a three-year extension worth $75 million but likely headlined as a six-year $125 million deal with the old money in his contract still provided to him.
In short, guaranteeing the next three and a half years on top of his initial deal would mean over $55 million fully guaranteed, more than the full guarantees Garrett received. On top of that, they can add rolling guarantees, similar to Kirk Cousins’ deal, which guarantee his salary for the 2022 season based on his roster status at the beginning of 2021.
The new deal the NFL struck with its broadcast partners could make those 2022 and 2023 numbers work for the team, with revenues doubling for its Sunday products and expanding substantially for its Thursday and Monday night showings over the next decade or so. Even without a significant jump, a return to normal cap expansion would mean that the Vikings have something approaching $225 million in space for 2022, a jump of $45 million.
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But if signing him to an extension proves to be unpalatable, the Vikings won’t find any shortage of trade partners.
“In recent years, we’ve seen edge rushers like Frank Clark command a first- and second-round pick in a trade package, and Hunter is a better player than Clark,” says Spielberger. “A package involving two firsts seems attainable, even given the precarious salary cap situation the league is facing. There is always going to a be a premium price on a young, elite pass rusher. It should be noted that while the Khalil Mack trade involved two first-round picks getting sent to the Raiders, the Bears did recoup a second-round pick in return. A similar overall framework for Hunter would probably be where Minnesota and Team X begin discussions, ultimately settling somewhere between the Clark and Mack compensation.”
The consensus among most analysts at the time was that Chicago won that trade. But as time has gone on and the Bears have missed out on opportunities to take premier picks in the draft while the Raiders have stocked up, it could be the case that the trade was much more even than many initially thought. Maybe the Raiders even won it outright.
The Vikings will likely be loath to consider a trade of Hunter. Any rebuild would hope to acquire players exactly like Hunter in the first place: young, with talent and potential and worth building around. But knowing the price of every asset a team has is an important step to figuring out the direction to head in going forward.
(Photo: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
Arif Hasan has been writing about the Vikings and the NFL for more than a decade, specializing in deep-dive analysis using both film and analytics to break down the most pressing questions surrounding the team. His work has appeared locally and nationally, featuring in publications like the Star Tribune, the LA Times, the International Business Times, Forbes, MSNBC and Bleacher Report. Prior to joining The Athletic, Arif wrote for Zone Coverage. Follow Arif on Twitter @ArifHasanNFL
