Fresh Predictions from NBA Trade and Offseason Rumors (2024)

The 2024 NBA offseason is unofficially officially upon us.

With only two teams left in the championship chase, most franchises are far enough removed from their 2023-24 campaigns to have taken their Cancun plunges already and since returned to business. That's why the rumor mill is buzzing like a hoop-heads' group chat during a postseason nail-biter.

A lot of this buzz will, of course, fail to materialize into anything more than a novel notion that never gains traction. Some of it will wind up on the official transaction log, though, so let's dissect these rumors and build some potential deals around them.

The Rumor: After a successful implementation of Phase 2 of its rebuilding plan this season, Houston might already be angling for further acceleration.

Per HoopsHype's Michael Scotto, the No. 3 pick the Rockets hold "will be discussed in trade talks leading up draft night." The plan, presumably, is to take a massive swing, as Scotto noted Houston's reported interest in Donovan Mitchell and previous attempt to add Mikal Bridges.

The Trade: Dillon Brooks, Tari Eason, Cam Whitmore and the No. 3 pick to the New Orleans Pelicans for Brandon Ingram

While Houston's 10th-ranked defense appeared playoff-ready, the same wasn't true of its 20th-ranked offense. And while there might be reasons to wonder whether internal development could provide a big enough boost to change that, it seems pretty clear the Rockets would prefer a quicker fix.

So, why not bringing in Ingram? He might not be a tier-one star—and also doesn't carry a tier-one-star price tag—but he has been a nightly supplier of 23.1 points, 5.2 assists and 1.8 three-pointers for five years running. Not to mention a 47.2/37.2/84.7 shooter over this stretch. For context, those numbers would have made him Houston's highest scorer and second-best distributor while tying him for third in volume perimeter shooting.

Rockets fans might quibble over including two prospects (Eason and Whitmore) plus the No. 3 pick knowing Ingram needs a new deal by next summer, but this assumes Houston would get a commitment or at least have a really strong hunch about securing one before making the offer.

New Orleans, meanwhile, seems unconvinced that Ingram is the ideal co-star for Zion Williamson—or at least not worth the money on his next deal. And while the Pels could be in the market for more immediate assistance than some of these incoming pieces would provide, they could also combine some of these trade chips with their own to get Williamson an optimal fit for his running mate.

The Rumor: While the Knicks could credit much of their success this season to the stellar play of fill-in-turned-full-time starting center Isaiah Hartenstein, they can also thank him for making their offseason trickier—and pricier—to navigate.

The rest of the league clearly took notice of Hartenstein's play, to the point that executives and cap strategists around the Association think Hartenstein "will be able to draw at least $80 million, and perhaps upward of $100 million" on the open market, per Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer. That could complicate matters for New York, which has Early Bird Rights on Hartenstein but only the ability to offer him a four-year, $72.5 million deal.

The Trade: Mitchell Robinson to the Memphis Grizzlies for Luke Kennard, the No. 9 pick, a 2026 second-round pick (via LAC) and a 2027 second-round pick (via ATL)

If the Knicks pay anywhere near $72.5 million to keep Hartenstein, that would be a crystal-clear indication of their intent to keep him in the starting lineup. That would also sound an alarm for Robinson, whose $14.3 million salary suddenly might be way too much to stomach for a backup big man.

That alarm could be music to the ears of the Grizzlies, who have a Steven Adams-sized hole in their center rotation and could be itching to get back to their elite ways on the offensive glass. A healthy Robinson would almost guarantee that happens, as he has averaged 5.4 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes for his career and snagged a staggering 6.7 per 36 this season.

With Ja Morant back driving this attack next season, Memphis should again be putting constant downhill pressure on opposing defenses. When they sell out on stopping his dribble penetrations, they leave themselves vulnerable on the offensive glass. That's how this offense produces a season like the 2021-22 campaign, when it was fourth in efficiency despite being just 24th in true shooting. That's what a whopping—and league-leading—33.8 offensive rebounding percentage can do.

If the Knicks give up Robinson in a deal that doesn't deliver a star, it would make sense to prioritize trade pieces that could eventually bring one back. The picks would give this front office more negotiating chips to toss around, while Kennard could add value with either his 43.9 career three-point percentage or his expiring $14.8 million team option.

The Rumor: The Lakers have enough roster-building resources (namely, three tradeable first-round picks and a hearty helping of mid-sized salaries) to go star-searching if they choose. Some really interesting names have bounced around the Hollywood hoops scene, so it's surely an option they'll explore.

Still, the "sense" from The Athletic's Jovan Buha is that "they're leaning more toward upgrading the supporting cast rather than the three-star model." Among Buha's reasons for those beliefs are the challenges of acquiring a third star, the uncertainty of which stars are even available and the difficulties of building up a roster around three high-priced hoopers.

The Trade: Rui Hachimura and the No. 17 pick to the Brooklyn Nets for Dorian Finney-Smith

Lakers fans who've been dreaming of adding a third star to the mix will certainly roll their eyes at this suggestion. Finney-Smith obviously isn't an elite, and some might wonder if he's enough of an upgrade to include the No. 17 pick (which becomes movable on draft night).

In a vacuum, there maybe isn't a ton of difference between the two forwards, but factor in fit, and Finney-Smith's three-and-D game could be much more impactful than Hachimura's score-first style.

L.A. needs more two-way talent, better protection on the defensive perimeter and more shooting. The best version of Finney-Smith checks all three boxes. He is coming off of a down shooting season (34.8 percent), but Brooklyn lacked the kind of gravitational forces he'd have around him in L.A. And maybe LeBron James could help Finney-Smith rediscover the form he once flashed alongside Luka Dončić in Dallas (39.5 percent over the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons).

As for Brooklyn, if it agrees there isn't a huge gap between Hachimura and Finney-Smith, then adding a top-20 pick would make this deal easily worth it. Hachimura (26) is on the exact same timeline as Mikal Bridges (27), so if the plan is still to try winning with the latter, the former can help with that. And if the Nets ever diverge from that plan, Hachimura should have decent (or better) value on the trade market.

The Rumor: Teams are watching to see whether contract extensions between Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat could get uncomfortable enough for either side to consider a split. And between Butler's age (34), his availability issues and Heat president Pat Riley's comments about those absences, there are certainly some uncomfortable elements at play.

Should things go awry and Butler become available via trade, the Golden State Warriors could "enter the conversation to at least some degree," per The Athletic's Anthony Slater. Interestingly, the Warriors would likely not have interest in Brandon Ingram, Slater added.

The Trade: Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors for Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, a 2026 first-round pick and a 2028 first-round pick

Before digging into the nuts and bolts of this blockbuster, let's start with a caveat: The Warriors can't currently put this offer on the table, as they're perched above the second apron. Ducking beneath is doable, though, since Chris Paul's $30 million salary is nonguaranteed, and Klay Thompson is trending toward becoming an unrestricted free agent.

If Golden State pictured Butler as its missing piece, though, those are all simple concessions to make. And the Warriors absolutely could feel that way, seeing as how Butler has done more with arguably less in South Beach than he'd have in Northern California. He wouldn't make them any younger, obviously, but his tenacity, shot-creation, ability to get to the line and defensive versatility would all be helpful to have.

Now, spacing could get tight when the Warriors trotted out all three of Butler, Draymond Green and Jonathan Kuminga together. Still, the collective hoops IQ of this core and its coach is sharp enough to figure things out. Plus, Golden State will always be able to navigate spacing concerns more than most given Curry's unparalleled ability to stretch defenses way outside of their comfort zones.

If the Heat don't want to pay Butler, they'd presumably seek out a new co-star for Bam Adebayo or the ability to acquire one. This package falls under the latter, though if anyone could help Wiggins get back on track, it might be Heat coach Erik Spoelstra. And Miami has long needed more size and strength in the frontcourt, which Looney would provide.

From there, it'd be up to the Heat whether they want to keep and develop Podziemski and Moody or use them as trade chips in Riley's next whale hunt. Either way, they'd have flexibility, which will arguably be tricky to come by should they commit themselves to a massive Butler extension instead.