2024 NBA Free Agency: Educated Guesses On Potential Early Signings (2024)

NBA free agency will start as early as Saturday if the Boston Celtics sweep the Dallas Mavericks. Under the new collective bargaining agreement rules, teams can begin to negotiate with their own free agents the day after the last game of the NBA Finals.

Some will reach a quick agreement. Others will bleed into the new year starting on July 1. (Verbals can be reached on June 30.)

Few teams have significant spending power, and the list of top free agents—while strong at the top—drops off in quality relatively quickly.

Every team hopes to improve in the offseason. The draft (June 26-27) and trades will shake things up, but the number of teams with spending power is short. It's not difficult to guess where some of the best players this summer will land.

Assuming a salary cap of $141 million, the following is a list of educated guesses on who will land where.

While many NBA insiders have long expected a compromise between the Los Angeles Clippers and Paul George on an extension, the absence of a deal suggests an impasse.

With the Philadelphia 76ers' significant spending power, the 34-year-old has the leverage to push the Clippers lest he relocates to the Eastern Conference.

Unless he opts in and extends with the Clips, George would decline his final year at $48.8 million to sign a new contract, potentially for four years ($221.1 million in Los Angeles, $212.2 million in Philadelphia).

If L.A. was willing to offer that kind of salary, a deal would already be done on an extension.

If George is kept for four seasons at the maximum in Philadelphia, the 76ers would have about $13.9 million to spend, assuming all other players are let go except the No. 16 pick, Embiid and Maxey. Teams that drop under the cap also gain the room mid-level exception (RMLE) of $8 million.

The Clippers' finances would shift without George, helping the team get below the aprons and even the luxury tax, depending on James Harden etc.

The Golden State Warriors may prioritize financial sanity this offseason, ending the Splash Brothers era with Klay Thompson as a free agent.

The Warriors can pay whatever they want to retain him, but that may mean committing to taxes, aprons and limited flexibility.

Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic took a leap forward this season with a solid (but short) playoff run. The team is flush with cap room and desperate for shooting.

Thompson, 34, is a legendary shooter, a big name and an excellent fit for an Orlando squad that defends well but needs floor spacing in the worst way.

Put him down to the Magic on a three-year, $81.9 million contract—more than the Warriors will pay (at least via the B/R crystal ball).

Assuming it renounces everyone it can except Goga Bitadze (who has a small cap hold), Orlando still projects to have over $27 million left to spend.

Given the family connection with Franz and Mo Wagner (coming off a productive year), the Magic opt out the older brother, renounce and re-sign him after the cap room is spent via the $8 million RMLE.

Malik Monk found a home in Los Angeles, playing well above his minimum contract to earn a mid-level deal with the Kings.

After two years, he's outperformed once again, and Sacramento is in a similar position with just his early Bird rights, which limit the team's offer to the 26-year-old at $17.4 million.

With Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox, the Kings can't get to the necessary $20 million below the salary cap to pay the kind of salary other teams will likely offer Monk in July. Even trading away Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter and others won't be enough to prevent his exit unless he's willing to take less to stay.

If the Kings can pay him almost $78 million over four years, the Magic will give him a 10 percent bump (slightly more, plus a favorable tax situation in Florida) to $86 million, starting at $20 million.

Monk is still a sixth man, but Thompson will play small forward for the team. The Magic bring in two shooters and have two creative scorers with Cole Anthony and Monk off the bench—with about $8.3 million left to spend.

Rounding out the Magic, the team needs veteran depth at power forward.

While they could retain Joe Ingles, Tobias Harris may provide a starting-caliber player behind Paolo Banchero.

Given how often players get injured in the NBA, Harris would be a bargain on a two-year, $16.9 million contract.

Orlando still has defensive-minded players such as Wendell Carter Jr., Jonathan Isaac and Jalen Suggs, but its spending power this summer goes to three players to improve shooting and scoring: Thompson, Monk and Harris.

The Utah Jazz remain in limbo after the Donovan Mitchell/Rudy Gay trades. They are relatively competitive but not quite a play-in team with one All-Star-caliber talent in Lauri Markkanen.

While the franchise can comfortably get to about $36 million in cap space, it's probably not time to go shopping to add frontline talent. Instead, the Jazz are expected to move slowly through the draft and via trade, with the available spending power going to Markkanen as part of a renegotiation/extension.

Utah can be creative in how it pays the 27-year-old, giving him an immediate raise to $33.2-$42.3 million and an extension starting at the projected max of $46.5 million for 2025-26.

Suppose he's getting $200 million in new salary (about what another team could pay him for four years in 2025 as an unrestricted free agent). In that case, the Jazz may prefer to pay most of that this season and next, with a salary that descends to $41 million in the final year.

That would leave the team without about $9 million in remaining cap space and another $8 million with the RMLE.

The Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) surprised most this past season with the best record in the Western Conference (tied with the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves).

The franchise will hit free agency with approximately $33 million in cap space, probably to add size that can play with or behind center Chet Holmgren.

Pencil in Isaiah Hartenstein of the New York Knicks.

Hartenstein, 26, was a significant part of the Knicks' postseason run as injuries decimated the team (Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, etc.). New York is limited to a starting offer of $16.2 million via his early Bird rights, an amount the Thunder can comfortably exceed.

Perhaps a three-year, $60 million deal would do the trick. That could leave OKC without $14 million in cap space to round out the roster (via free agency or trade), plus the $8 million RMLE.

The Thunder have a wing spot to fill, vacated by ill-fated trade acquisition Gordon Hayward. Meanwhile, Caleb Martin has a $7.1 million player option with the Miami Heat.

Martin played a key role for Miami the last two years, with his production and efficiency increasing throughout the postseason. While the Heat may hope to retain him, the team's payroll is too high.

If the Thunder offer the rest of their cap space, just under $14.1 million, the 28-year-old may leave South Beach for land-locked Oklahoma City. The Thunder probably get control of his final season—something like $44.3 million over three, including a team option.

The franchise still has the $8 million RMLE if needed, but adding Hartenstein and Martin to one of the best teams in the West reads like a win for Oklahoma City.

The San Antonio Spurs need a point guard, and while they could go all-in to try to trade for Atlanta Hawks All-Star Trae Young or via a more conservative route as Victor Wembanyama continues to grow into his tremendous potential.

Tyus Jones, whose brother Tre Jones plays for the Spurs, is one of the better true point guards in the NBA. He's not a De'Aaron Fox/Ja Morant scorer but more of a traditional floor general/shooter. He's not a great defender, but Wembanyama protecting the rim is a San Antonio luxury.

The Spurs can probably outspend the Washington Wizards with a starting salary in the $17 million range (three years, $53.5 million), leaving the team with the $8 million RMLE.

The Dallas Mavericks may be hurting in the NBA Finals, but the 2023-24 season was a dramatic turnaround from their non-playoff run a year ago.

One of the best offseason acquisitions was Derrick Jones Jr. on a minimum contract, but the 27-year-old forward may not be back with Dallas next year without a trade.

The most the Mavericks can pay Jones (via non-Bird rights) is about $3.6 million, which shouldn't be enough for the defensive wing shooting a much improved 37.3 percent this postseason. The alternative is the taxpayer mid-level exception (TMLE) at $5.3 million, but even that is probably light in a free-agent market with not nearly enough impact players.

With Tim Hardaway Jr.'s role decreasing, look for Dallas to try to offload him and his expiring $16.2 million salary to a team like the Detroit Pistons—who are flush with cap room and could use a veteran shooter for a season as the team retools.

Dallas might have to send second-round or other considerations or incentivize Detroit. However, getting out of his salary would open up the larger non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE) of $12.9 million to the Mavs.

That should be enough to retain Jones, leaving Dallas seeking additional moves around the margins to improve—but at least it's not losing a key starter.

Spoiler: LeBron James will headline the final slide of these re-signings (with the Lakers).

With that in mind, along with the Warriors ducking as much luxury tax as possible, Chris Paul isn't going to get his non-guaranteed $30 million from Golden State.

Once he clears waivers, put Paul, finally, on the Lakers at a $3.3 million minimum contract.

The 39-year-old can come off the bench or even start, though the Lakers will need to limit his minutes, given he's just a few months younger than the oldest player in the league (James, 40 in December).

While L.A. needs to infuse the roster with youth, the team also needs smart, veteran players. Paul was almost a Laker in 2011, but the deal was scuttled by David Stern, the late NBA commissioner who was operating as the owner of the New Orleans Hornets (now Pelicans) before it was sold to the Benson family.

Paul never got to play with Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, but now he gets the chance to don the purple and gold alongside James.

Few teams have spending power, and many will re-sign their top free agents.

Without getting into the numbers, pencil in the following:

That's far from every team and free agent, but it's a decent list of reasonable guesses on what's coming soon.